An open-source framework for analyzing NFL player projection accuracy

Drops applies the Whiffs evaluation framework to football, the same approach Bricks uses for the NBA: separate playing time from rates, adjust for league average, and weight errors by opportunity. (See the methodology.)

Passing is weighted by attempts, rushing by carries, and receiving by targets. Projection systems in football/projection_evaluation.py are scored when their CSVs line up with a season of actuals.

Projection Accuracy Overview

Passing Attempts

Passing YDS/CMP

Rushing Carries

Rushing YDS/CAR

Receiving Targets

Receiving REC/TGT

Receiving YDS/REC